000
WTPZ43 KNHC 300240
TCDEP3
 
Tropical Storm Georgette Discussion Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP082022
800 PM PDT Fri Jul 29 2022
 
Easterly wind shear and a dry environment appear to be taking a
toll on Georgette.  Deep convection associated with the tropical
storm has decreased in coverage during the afternoon and evening,
leaving Georgette's center nearly exposed. The initial intensity
remains 45 kt for this intensity based on recent current intensity
estimates from TAFB, SAB, and the UW-CIMSS SATCON.
 
Georgette's future remains cloudy (lack of cold cloud tops near its 
center notwithstanding), due to its marginal surrounding environment 
and the potential for interaction with a larger tropical cyclone, 
Frank, currently located to the east.  For the next day or so, a 
low- to mid-level ridge should steer Georgette west-southwestward or 
southwestward at a slightly slower speed than its current forward 
speed of 11 kt. However, the tropical storm will slow to a crawl as 
Frank moves closer and eventually north of Georgette. Confidence in 
Georgette's track forecast is quite low once it slows down. In 
general, the tropical storm or its remnants should begin to move 
northward to northeastward by early next week, however there is a 
large degree of spread in the models. The new NHC track forecast is 
most similar to the previous official forecast, however this should 
not be interpreted as a sign of confidence in the forecast.
 
Most of the intensity guidance agrees that Georgette will weaken 
over the next few days.  There's no indication that the tropical 
cyclone's environment will become conducive for strengthening, so 
weakening seems likely. The main source of disagreement is on how 
fast that weakening will occur, and if Georgette will dissipate or 
become post-tropical within the next 5 days.  Some models like the 
GFS and HWRF indicate Georgette could persist longer than the 
official forecast indicates, while others like the ECMWF suggest it 
could become post-tropical by the middle of next week. The new 
official intensity forecast shows Georgette weakening a little 
faster than the previous advisory, similar to the latest multi-model 
intensity consensus, IVCN.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  30/0300Z 14.5N 125.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  30/1200Z 14.1N 126.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  31/0000Z 13.7N 127.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  31/1200Z 13.4N 128.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  01/0000Z 13.6N 129.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 60H  01/1200Z 14.0N 128.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  02/0000Z 14.5N 127.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  03/0000Z 16.0N 126.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
120H  04/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky