000
WTPZ43 KNHC 290837
TCDEP3
 
Tropical Storm Georgette Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP082022
200 AM PDT Fri Jul 29 2022
 
There has been little change in Georgette's structure overnight.
Earlier microwave imagery and more recent geostationary satellite
data continue to suggest that the cyclone's low-level center is
located near the eastern side of the primary convective mass.  This
is due to moderate easterly shear.  Dvorak satellite intensity
estimates remained unchanged, and therefore still support an
initial wind speed of 45 kt.
 
The cyclone is moving south of due west, or 260 degrees at 9 kt.
Georgette is forecast to move west-southwestward to
southwestward with a deceleration in forward speed as the much 
larger and stronger Tropical Storm or Hurricane Frank passes to the 
northeast.  The latest dynamical model guidance shows Georgette 
moving farther westward in the next 36 to 48 hours, before the 
storm stalls when Frank finally passes Georgette's longitude. After 
that time, the guidance takes the smaller tropical cyclone 
(Georgette) northeastward in the flow around the southeastern side 
of Frank.  Most of the models keep Georgette separate for the 
next 3 to 4 days, but there has been a significant increase in the 
spread of guidance tonight, and the uncertainty in the track 
forecast is unusually large.  The official forecast has been 
adjusted westward through 48 hours to be in better agreement with 
the various track aids.  After that time, the forecast is a blend of 
the GFS ensemble mean and the HFIP corrected consensus.
 
Moderate easterly to northeasterly shear is forecast to continue
over Georgette during the next few days.  This is likely to result
in little overall change in strength through 36 hours.  After
that time, the official forecast calls for some weakening as the
vertical shear is forecast to increase. Although the NHC forecast
calls for Georgette to dissipate in 4 to 5 days, some of the
guidance suggests that this could occur sooner.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  29/0900Z 15.3N 121.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  29/1800Z 14.8N 123.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  30/0600Z 14.3N 124.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  30/1800Z 13.8N 125.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  31/0600Z 13.8N 126.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 60H  31/1800Z 14.0N 125.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  01/0600Z 15.0N 125.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  02/0600Z 17.1N 123.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  03/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Brown