000 WTPZ43 KNHC 290238 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Georgette Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082022 800 PM PDT Thu Jul 28 2022 Georgette remains a very compact tropical storm. Satellite images show that the system remains sheared, with the low-level center estimated to be near on the northeast side of the main of area of deep convection. The system's outflow is also restricted on the east side due to the shear. The Dvorak estimates remains steady at 3.0/45 kt from TAFB and SAB, and the initial intensity is held at that value. The storm continues to move south of due west, or 260 degrees, at 10 kt. A slightly slower west-southwest to southwest motion is expected during the next couple of days. However, as much larger and stronger Frank passes to the north, the steering flow should cause Georgette to stall and then turn northeastward or northward. The NHC track forecast has been adjusted southward during the first 48 hours and then eastward from 60-96 hours, trending toward the latest consensus models. Georgette is expected to remain relatively steady in strength during the next couple of days as moderate northeasterly shear persists. However, after Frank passes to the north of Georgette, weakening should occur when the system moves along Frank's trough axis and gradually becomes more embedded in its circulation. The NHC intensity forecast is a little lower than the previous one and near the middle of the guidance envelope. Although Georgette is predicted to dissipate in 5 days, it is possible that it could open into a trough sooner than that. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0300Z 15.5N 120.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 29/1200Z 15.0N 121.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 30/0000Z 14.3N 123.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 30/1200Z 13.8N 124.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 31/0000Z 13.7N 124.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 31/1200Z 14.1N 124.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 01/0000Z 15.2N 123.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 02/0000Z 18.7N 121.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 03/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi