000 WTPZ43 KNHC 272053 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Georgette Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082022 200 PM PDT Wed Jul 27 2022 The satellite presentation of the tropical cyclone this afternoon remains well organized, albeit very compact. The well curved band seen earlier this morning on microwave has evolved into a small central dense overcast with cloud top temperatures of -70 to -75 C, and the center estimated to be embedded within this cirrus canopy. Dvorak satellite estimates from the various agencies were T2.5/35-kt from TAFB, T2.0/30-kt from SAB, and T2.4/34-kt from UW-CIMSS ADT. Unfortunately today's ASCAT swaths missed the small wind field of the cyclone, but given the healthy structure seen on satellite imagery and the higher subjective and objective estimates, the initial intensity is set at 35-kt, upgrading Tropical Depression Eight-E to Tropical Storm Georgette. Georgette has been moving just north of due west today with the motion estimated at 275/8 kt. For the first 24 hours, the storm's motion is expected to gradually bend westward and then west-southwestward as its influenced by a weak mid-level ridge oriented southwest-to-northeast ahead of the cyclone. Afterwards, the track forecast becomes increasingly uncertain and complex. As mentioned previously, larger tropical storm Frank will be approaching Georgette from the east, and its outer wind field will likely have some influence on Georgette's motion. Subtle differences in structure and distance between Frank and Georgette could have large implications on how far westward Georgette gets in the 3-4 day forecast period. This is illustrated by the most recent ECMWF ensemble tracks, which show an across-track spread of more than 500 n mi in just 72 hours, which is roughly 5 times the average forecast track error at that forecast period. To add to the uncertainty, the GFS and UKMET models do not appear to capture the tiny vortex of Georgette well in their most recent cycle, and quickly absorb it in Frank's larger circulation. Favoring a solution that keeps Georgette a separate entity, the latest track forecast leans more heavily on a blend between the ECMWF, its ensemble mean, and Canadian, which mostly keep Georgette as a coherent feature through the forecast period. This track is further north of the previous track early on, and also takes Georgette further west over the next 3 days. Afterwards, The larger monsoonal flow that is expected to wrap up into Frank's larger circulation will likely also capture Georgette, and a sharp turn to the north and north-northeast is now predicted at the end of the forecast period. This current track forecast remains low confidence and larger-than normal adjustments may be necessary if Frank ends up getting closer and exerting more influence on Georgette's track than currently indicated here. The intensity forecast also remains challenging, both due to the small size of Georgette, and the looming potential for its interaction with Frank located further east. Easterly vertical wind shear of 10-15 knots is expected to continue for the next couple of days as the storm traverses over 28-29 C sea surface temperatures in a relatively dry mid-level environment. The small structure of Georgette also hints at the the potential for rapid intensity changes, both up or down. Assuming occasional dry-air entrainment could occur, only gradual intensification is shown over the next 36 hours, peaking Georgette as a 50 kt tropical storm. After that time, the outflow from Frank to its east may result in a more hostile environment, and most of the intensity guidance levels off at that time. At the end of the forecast, Georgette is expected to move over cooler SSTs and even higher shear, which could begin a weakening trend. The latest intensity forecast is a bit higher than the previous cycle, but is in fairly good agreement with the latest HCCA and IVCN consensus aids. This intensity forecast is also low confidence. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/2100Z 16.5N 115.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 28/0600Z 16.2N 117.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 28/1800Z 15.6N 118.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 29/0600Z 15.2N 120.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 29/1800Z 14.8N 121.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 30/0600Z 14.6N 122.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 30/1800Z 14.6N 123.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 31/1800Z 15.3N 123.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 01/1800Z 17.8N 121.6W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Papin