000 WTPZ43 KNHC 271459 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Eight-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082022 900 AM MDT Wed Jul 27 2022 The area of low pressure we have been monitoring more than 500 miles southwest of the Baja California peninsula has continued to become better organized this morning. First light visible imagery shows cold convective cloud tops near the estimated center that also appear to be rotating cyclonically. While we haven't had any recent C-band scatterometer passes near the center of this system, a recent KU-band scatterometer showed plenty of non-rain contaminated winds to help confirm that a closed circulation exists. Subjective Dvorak classifications were up to T2.0/30-kt from TAFB and T1.5/25-kt from SAB. A recently arriving SSMIS pass at 1159 UTC also showed a well-defined curve band wrapping at least 75 percent around the northwestern side of the system. All these data indicate a new tropical depression has formed, and the initial intensity will be set at 30 kt this advisory. Currently the depression is moving westward at 275/6 kt. A large deep-layer ridge is situated north of the cyclone which should steer it on a general westward to west-southwestward heading over the next day or so. Afterwards, the larger circulation of Tropical Storm Frank is expected to get close enough to initiate binary interaction with the depression. The net result of this interaction is that the depression is likely to bend even more southward than the larger-scale steering flow would initially suggest, and there is some chance that Frank may capture the smaller depression. For now, the track forecast keeps Frank and TD Eight-E separate, showing a very slow west-northwestward motion towards the end of the forecast period. This track forecast is roughly follows the TVCE aid early on, but is slower later in the forecast period due to uncertainty with interaction with Frank to the east. This initial track forecast is of low confidence. The intensity forecast is also challenging and strongly related to how much interaction this depression has with the larger circulation of Frank. Assuming the depression remains separate, environmental conditions only appear marginally favorable for intensification in the short-term, with moderate easterly vertical wind shear, and plenty of nearby dry air that could get ingested into the small circulation at any time. For these reasons, the intensity forecast only shows modest intensification over the next 24-48 hours and caps the storm at 40 kt thereafter due to uncertainty in its future evolution near Frank. This is roughly in line with the latest SHIPS guidance, but is lower than the HCCA and other consensus intensity aids which are biased by the larger and stronger wind field of Frank later on in the forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/1500Z 16.3N 114.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 28/0000Z 16.0N 115.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 28/1200Z 15.2N 117.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 29/0000Z 14.4N 118.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 29/1200Z 14.0N 118.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 30/0000Z 14.0N 119.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 30/1200Z 14.3N 119.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 31/1200Z 15.0N 121.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 01/1200Z 16.1N 124.0W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Papin