868 
WTPZ43 KNHC 260839
TCDEP3
 
Tropical Storm Celia Discussion Number  39
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032022
300 AM MDT Sun Jun 26 2022

Geostationary satellite imagery shows increased convection 
on the western and southern sides of Celia's circulation.  
However, as the system passed just south of the island of Socorro 
yesterday, a weather station did not even measure any sustained 
tropical-force-winds.  Subjective and objective satellite intensity 
estimates range between 40 and 55 kt.  The initial intensity has 
been lowered to 45 kt to reflect a compromise between all of the 
estimates and observations.  Celia will move into increasingly 
unfavorable environmental conditions, with sea surface temperatures 
below 25 C and a dry and stable airmass.  Therefore, continued 
weakening is expected.  The official forecast predicts the system 
will be post-tropical by 36 h and a remnant low in two days.  This 
intensity forecast is lower than most of the model guidance.

Celia is moving west-northwest at about 9 kt, steered by a mid-level 
ridge.  As the system loses convection and becomes a shallow remnant 
low, it is expected to turn westward within the low-level trade 
winds.  The NHC track forecast lies on the southern half of the 
guidance envelope partially due to the intensity forecast, assuming 
a quicker westward turn for a weaker cyclone.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  26/0900Z 19.3N 113.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  26/1800Z 19.7N 114.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  27/0600Z 20.2N 116.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  27/1800Z 21.0N 118.1W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 48H  28/0600Z 21.7N 120.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  28/1800Z 22.4N 122.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  29/0600Z 23.1N 124.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  30/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Bucci/Blake