000 WTPZ43 KNHC 260240 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Celia Discussion Number 38 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022 900 PM MDT Sat Jun 25 2022 While Celia continues to maintain a relatively symmetric convective appearance on satellite imagery, the coldest convective cloud tops are gradually warming as the storm slowly succumbs to cooler ocean waters underneath. A blend of the latest subjective Dvorak estimates still support an initial intensity of 50 kt, though I suspect this remains generous and hopefully overnight scatterometer data can provide additional assessment of the wind-field around the storm. Sea-surface temperatures will continue gradually decreasing as the system moves into an increasingly stable environment. Thus, gradual weakening is expected to continue. The latest NHC forecast now anticipates Celia will lose its remaining convection in about 48 hours, marking its transition to a post-tropical cyclone. The intensity forecast shows a bit faster rate of weakening, largely discounting the recent GFS solutions which unrealistically keep deep central convection near the center over a very unfavorable thermodynamic environment. The center of Celia is moving west-northwestward at a bit faster pace, or 290/8 kt. The track forecast reasoning remains the same, as mid-level ridging should keep the cyclone on a west-northwestward heading. A turn westward at the end of the storm's life is anticipated as it becomes a shallow remnant low, steered primarily by the low-level flow. The latest NHC track forecast is nearly identical to the previous forecast, though now shows dissipation in 120 hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/0300Z 19.1N 112.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 26/1200Z 19.4N 113.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 27/0000Z 19.9N 115.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 27/1200Z 20.4N 117.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 28/0000Z 21.0N 119.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 60H 28/1200Z 21.7N 121.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 29/0000Z 22.3N 124.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 30/0000Z 23.0N 128.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin