000
WTPZ43 KNHC 250842
TCDEP3
 
Tropical Storm Celia Discussion Number  35
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032022
300 AM MDT Sat Jun 25 2022

The convective organization of Celia has not improved over the 
past several hours.  While banding features are still present, 
cloud top temperatures near the center are warming. Given 
the mixed satellite signals, the initial intensity is 
held at 55 kt and this could be generous.

Celia is now encountering more marginal sea surface temperatures 
(SSTs), slightly below 26 C.  It appears the system has run 
out of time for further intensification.  While the shear remains 
low, the atmosphere is gradually becoming more stable and dry.  
This should result in Celia weakening and later this weekend, 
losing convection in 2 or 3 days.  The official intensity 
forecast is reduced from the previous one, on the lower end of the 
guidance since Celia has been under-performing.

The system is moving west-northwest at 8 kt.  This motion is 
expected to continue for the next few days, with a gradual increase 
in forward speed as the storm is steered by a building mid-level 
ridge.  The NHC track forecast lies near the middle of the guidance 
envelope and only minimal changes have been made from the previous 
track forecast.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  25/0900Z 18.0N 110.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  25/1800Z 18.4N 111.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  26/0600Z 18.9N 112.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  26/1800Z 19.4N 114.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  27/0600Z 20.0N 116.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 60H  27/1800Z 20.6N 118.4W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 72H  28/0600Z 21.1N 120.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  29/0600Z 22.0N 125.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  30/0600Z 22.5N 131.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
Forecaster Bucci/Blake