000 WTPZ43 KNHC 250242 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Celia Discussion Number 34 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022 900 PM MDT Fri Jun 24 2022 Core convection, while waning somewhat over Celia this evening, remains fairly well-organized, with obvious banding features wrapping around the western semi-circle of the tropical cyclone. Several microwave passes, including a GPM pass at 0042 UTC also depict this organization, with an attempt at a banding-type eye feature open to the southeast. The latest round of satellite estimates are mostly unchanged from earlier today, but given the previous lackluster scatterometer data, the initial intensity has been held at 55 kt this advisory. Celia continues to move to the west-northwest with a current motion at 300/6 kt. The forward motion of the cyclone is expected to gradually increase by early next week as northward mid-level ridging strengthens and expands westward. Once again there are few changes to the track forecast from the prior cycle, and the latest NHC forecast is just a hint faster, blending the reliable consensus aids TVCE and HCCA. Per the latest SHIPS guidance, Celia is now over sub 26 C sea-surface temperatures (SSTs). These SSTs are expected to remain between 25-26 C over the next 36 hours as Celia passes over the cold wake of Blas, which moved over this general location a week ago. While vertical wind shear is expected to remain low (below 10 kt) with sufficently high mid-level moisture, Celia's radial wind-field has become diffuse on its eastern side, without a distinct radius of maximum wind. This structural change is partially related to the ongoing convection well away from Celia's core to the southeast, associated with monsoonal flow over warmer SSTs. The GFS and SHIPS guidance still insist on Celia becoming a hurricane, while the most recent HWRF/HMON runs (which are atmosphere-ocean coupled) indicate weakening. A compromise of these two possibilities is to indicate only slight additional strengthening for Celia over the next 12-24 hours, with gradual weakening beginning thereafter. The latest NHC intensity forecast lies between IVCN and HCCA guidance and no longer makes Celia a hurricane. As the storm moves over increasing cool SSTs, it is expected to gradually lose its convection, becoming a remnant low by the end of the forecast period. This status could occur sooner than forecast, as suggested by the ECMWF model. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0300Z 17.8N 109.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 25/1200Z 18.2N 110.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 26/0000Z 18.7N 112.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 26/1200Z 19.1N 113.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 27/0000Z 19.7N 115.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 27/1200Z 20.2N 117.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 28/0000Z 20.9N 119.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 29/0000Z 21.8N 124.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 30/0000Z 22.5N 130.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Papin