000 WTPZ43 KNHC 242035 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Celia Discussion Number 33 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022 300 PM MDT Fri Jun 24 2022 Celia has the appearance of becoming better organized, with subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates of T4.0 all suggesting it's at hurricane strength. However, two recent scatterometer passes only showed winds as high as 35-40 kt, so any strengthening of the wind field is apparently lagging the improved convective structure. Because of this large discrepancy in estimates, the initial intensity is held at 55 kt. The scatterometer data also indicate that Celia is asymmetric, with no tropical-storm-force winds on the west side. Celia's speed has slowed further, and the initial motion estimate is 285/5 kt. This is about the slowest Celia is expected to move, and its forward speed is forecast to gradually increase over the next five days as the ridge to the north strengthens and expands westward. There are no significant changes to the track forecast reasoning on this cycle, and the updated NHC track prediction is basically an update of the morning forecast. Celia still has a small window of time for the wind field to strengthen and catch up to the satellite presentation, and the NHC forecast continues to show it becoming a hurricane in the next 12 to 24 hours. This forecast closely follows the HCCA consensus aid. However, cooler waters ahead of the storm are expected to induce weakening after 36 hours, and Celia is likely to become post-tropical by day 4 when it loses its deep convection. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/2100Z 17.2N 108.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 25/0600Z 17.6N 109.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 25/1800Z 18.1N 111.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 26/0600Z 18.6N 112.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 26/1800Z 19.1N 114.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 27/0600Z 19.6N 116.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 27/1800Z 20.2N 118.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 28/1800Z 21.3N 123.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 29/1800Z 21.9N 128.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Berg