000
WTPZ43 KNHC 240237
TCDEP3
 
Tropical Storm Celia Discussion Number  30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032022
900 PM MDT Thu Jun 23 2022

Celia continues to become better organized, as a ragged central 
dense overcast has developed and widespread outer convective bands 
are forming in the southeastern semicircle.  Unfortunately, no 
microwave overpasses are available to show what the structure is 
under the overcast.  The various subjective and objective intensity 
estimates have not yet responded to the improved cloud pattern, so 
the initial intensity is held at a possibly conservative 45 kt.

Celia is now in an environment of light to moderate shear, and these 
conditions are likely to persist through the forecast period. 
However, the cyclone is running out of warm water over which to 
strengthen.  Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) along the forecast 
track decrease to about 26C in about 12 h, are in the 25-26C range 
from 12-48 h, and then decrease below 25C after 60 h.  Based on this 
and the intensity guidance, Celia should strengthen for 24-36 h, and 
the intensity forecast continues to show it becoming a hurricane 
during this time.  After 36 h, the cyclone is expected to slowly 
weaken as it moves over the cooler water, eventually decaying to a 
remnant low over 21C SSTs by 120 h.  The new intensity forecast 
follows the overall trend of the intensity guidance and shows lower 
intensity than the previous forecast from 36-96 h.

The initial motion is now 295/8.  A mid-level ridge over the 
southern United States and northern Mexico is expected to build 
westward to the north of Celia over the next few days, and this 
should keep the cyclone moving generally west-northwestward with 
some variation in forward speed.  Near the end of the forecast 
period, a more westward motion is forecast as the weakening cyclone 
is steered more by low-level easterly flow.  The guidance has 
shifted a little north since the previous advisory, and the new 
forecast track lies slightly north of the old track.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  24/0300Z 16.7N 107.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  24/1200Z 17.0N 108.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  25/0000Z 17.4N 109.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  25/1200Z 17.7N 110.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  26/0000Z 18.3N 111.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
 60H  26/1200Z 19.0N 113.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  27/0000Z 19.7N 114.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  28/0000Z 21.0N 119.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
120H  29/0000Z 21.5N 123.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
Forecaster Beven