000 WTPZ43 KNHC 231437 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Celia Discussion Number 28 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022 900 AM MDT Thu Jun 23 2022 Celia is a bit of a conundrum. The strong east-northeasterly shear which was affecting the system over the past couple of days has lessened and turned out of the north, but the cyclone may have ingested so much dry air during that time that it's now struggling to produce much convection near its center. That said, new convection has recently been developing just to the east of the center. The initial intensity is being generously held at 45 kt, at the upper end of the estimate range, in the hopes that we'll get some scatterometer data later today. The storm's 12-hour motion is northwestward, or 315/11 kt, but there are signs it may be turning back to the west-northwest. There are no changes in the forecast track reasoning, with mid-level high pressure over northern Mexico still expected to drive Celia west-northwestward for the next 4 days or so. A westward turn is expected by day 5 as a weaker Celia is steered by lower-level winds. The biggest change this morning is that there is much tighter spread among the guidance, with the HWRF no longer a southern outlier as in previous days. Confidence in the track forecast is therefore higher than it had been. The big question for intensity is whether the dry air near the core can be mixed out and allow deep convection to organize near the center. The environment appears conducive for that to happen, with shear expected to be generally low and SSTs to be 26 degrees or higher for the next 2 days or so. The peak intensity in the NHC forecast has been lowered slightly due to time over warm waters being a limiting factor, but Celia still has the potential to become a hurricane during the next couple of days. Much colder waters and a more stable atmosphere should cause Celia to become post-tropical by day 5. The initial 12-foot seas radii have been adjusted and expanded significantly over Celia's eastern semicircle by TAFB based on data from a 0730 UTC Cryosat-2 pass. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/1500Z 16.0N 106.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 24/0000Z 16.6N 107.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 24/1200Z 17.0N 108.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 25/0000Z 17.3N 109.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 25/1200Z 17.8N 110.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 26/0000Z 18.5N 112.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 26/1200Z 19.1N 113.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 27/1200Z 20.5N 117.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 28/1200Z 21.4N 122.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ Forecaster Berg