000
WTPZ43 KNHC 230836
TCDEP3
 
Tropical Storm Celia Discussion Number  27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032022
400 AM CDT Thu Jun 23 2022

The organization of Celia has deteriorated this morning.  The 
low-level center is completely exposed to the north of a 
ragged-looking area of convection.  This unexpected separation of 
the low-level center, apparently due to the northerly shear, implies 
that there has been no increase of intensity since yesterday.  The 
initial wind speed is held at 45 kt and given the current 
appearance of the system, this may even be a generous intensity 
estimate.

Celia has taken a northwestward jog over the past 6 to 12 hours.  
This is potentially due to the sheared vortex structure.  The storm 
is expected to become more vertically coupled and resume a 
west-northwestward track beginning later today.  The longer-term 
motion should be governed by the mid-level high pressure system and 
associated ridge to the north and northeast of Celia.  The new NHC 
track forecast is shifted slightly northward on a account of the 
recent more northward movement of the cyclone.  This is in close 
agreement with the model consensus. 

The global dynamical models forecast some decrease in the 
vertical wind shear, which should allow for gradual intensification 
of the storm.  However, global models do maintain a moderate 
level of shear and this, along with cooler SSTs within the 
next day or two, could limit strengthening.  The official intensity 
forecast is a little above most of the model guidance.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  23/0900Z 15.5N 105.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  23/1800Z 16.3N 106.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  24/0600Z 16.9N 108.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  24/1800Z 17.2N 109.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  25/0600Z 17.5N 110.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
 60H  25/1800Z 18.2N 111.7W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  26/0600Z 19.1N 113.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  27/0600Z 20.3N 117.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  28/0600Z 21.3N 121.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch/Bucci