000
WTPZ43 KNHC 220843
TCDEP3
 
Tropical Storm Celia Discussion Number  23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032022
400 AM CDT Wed Jun 22 2022

The organization of Celia has not changed significantly based 
on satellite imagery since the last advisory.  A couple of recent 
scatterometer passes showed an elongated low-level circulation on 
the northeastern edge of a convective burst, likely due to the 
effects of the moderate northeasterly shear.  Dvorak intensity 
estimates range between 35 and 45 kt, and with no increase in the 
organization of the cloud pattern in the past several hours, the 
initial intensity estimate remains 40 kt.  Data from the 
scatterometer overpasses suggest that this may be a generous 
intensity estimate, however.

Celia continues to move west-northwestward at 295/11 kt along the 
southwestern edge of a mid-level ridge centered over the southern 
United States.  This ridge is expected to continue to steer the 
tropical cyclone west-northwestward with a gradual decrease in 
forward speed through the forecast period.  The track forecast 
models have come into better agreement, however there are still 
some discrepancies over the speed at which Celia will move during 
the next several days.  The official track forecast is in very good 
agreement with the previous NHC prediction and remains close to the 
dynamical model consensus.

Based on the dynamical guidance, the moderate shear over the 
tropical storm is expected to persist today before decreasing this 
evening.  Since other environmental factors are already conducive 
for intensification, Celia is expected strengthen to a hurricane 
within the next 48 hours.  The official intensity forecast is near 
or above the intensity model consensus.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  22/0900Z 13.4N 103.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  22/1800Z 14.0N 104.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  23/0600Z 14.9N 105.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  23/1800Z 15.7N 107.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  24/0600Z 16.2N 108.7W   70 KT  80 MPH
 60H  24/1800Z 16.8N 110.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  25/0600Z 17.4N 111.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  26/0600Z 18.7N 114.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  27/0600Z 19.8N 117.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch/Bucci