103 WTPZ43 KNHC 212034 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Celia Discussion Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022 400 PM CDT Tue Jun 21 2022 Recent scatterometer data suggest that Celia's surface circulation is stretched from northeast to southwest, and it's possible that the center is re-forming closer to the deep convection. Tropical-storm- force winds are confined to the southwestern quadrant (within the convection), and the least-questionable of the two ASCAT passes suggests that peak winds are near 40 kt. This is a little higher than the subjective Dvorak estimates but equal to the latest UW-CIMSS SATCON estimate. Celia appears to have turned toward the west-northwest, and with the center being tugged westward by the convection, has sped up a little bit with a motion of 285/13 kt. A strong subtropical ridge centered over the southern United States and Mexico is likely to keep Celia on a west-northwestward trajectory for the next 5 days, with a gradual decrease in forward speed expected through Friday. While the UKMET has come closer in line with the other models on this cycle, the HWRF remains a southern outlier, likely because it is showing more immediate intensification to a hurricane within 24 hours. This scenario does not appear reasonable given the current shear conditions, and the NHC forecast remains farther north, closer to the model consensus aids and the 1500 UTC forecast. Moderate-to-strong shear from the east-northeast is likely to continue affecting Celia for the next 36 hours or so. Some continued gradual strengthening is still possible, however, and the NHC forecast is at the low end of the intensity guidance during that period. After 36 hours, the official forecast is closer to the model consensus aids ICON and HCCA as deep-layer shear decreases and SSTs remain above 26C, and Celia is forecast to become a hurricane by Thursday. Some weakening is anticipated over the weekend once Celia reaches sub-26C ocean waters. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/2100Z 12.5N 101.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 22/0600Z 13.0N 102.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 22/1800Z 13.7N 104.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 23/0600Z 14.5N 106.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 23/1800Z 15.3N 107.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 24/0600Z 16.0N 108.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 24/1800Z 16.6N 110.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 25/1800Z 17.8N 112.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 26/1800Z 19.2N 115.4W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg