000
WTPZ43 KNHC 210845
TCDEP3
 
Tropical Depression Celia Discussion Number  19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032022
400 AM CDT Tue Jun 21 2022
 
Celia has changed little in organization during the past several 
hours.  Strong northeasterly shear has been affecting the 
depression, with the center of the cyclone near the sharp 
northeastern edge of a rather shapeless area of very strong 
convection.  The system lacks well-defined banding features at this 
time, and Dvorak analyses from TAFB and SAB support keeping the 
intensity at 30 kt for this advisory.

Based on the SHIPS model output, Celia should continue to be in an 
environment of moderate, but significant, vertical shear for 
the next day or two followed by a notable decrease of shear 
in 48 hours.  The official intensity forecast calls for only slow 
strengthening in the early part of the period followed by a 
slightly faster rate of intensification for a while thereafter.  In 
3-5 days, however, cooler SSTs should limit strengthening.  The 
official intensity forecast is similar to the model consensus 
for the earlier part of the period and a little above it later 
on.  This is about the same as in the previous NHC forecast.  

Celia has been moving slightly south of west, or about 265/11 kt.  
A mid-tropospheric ridge extending west-southwestward from a high 
centered near the southern U.S. Plains should remain in place to 
the north of the tropical cyclone for the next several days.  Celia 
should move on a generally west-northwestward track on the 
southwest side of the ridge for most of the forecast period.  
Although the steering pattern seems relatively straightforward, 
there are noticeable differences in the track forecasts from some 
of the more reliable models.  As noted earlier, this could partially 
be due to differences in the cyclone vortex depths in these models.  
The official track forecast is only slightly south of the previous 
one, and follows the corrected multi-model consensus.  

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  21/0900Z 11.6N  98.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  21/1800Z 12.0N 100.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  22/0600Z 12.5N 102.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  22/1800Z 13.2N 104.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  23/0600Z 14.1N 105.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 60H  23/1800Z 15.0N 107.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  24/0600Z 15.8N 108.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  25/0600Z 17.0N 111.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
120H  26/0600Z 18.5N 113.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch