000
WTPZ43 KNHC 201433
TCDEP3
 
Tropical Depression Celia Discussion Number  16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032022
1000 AM CDT Mon Jun 20 2022
 
Celia remains a poorly organized and weak tropical cyclone. 
Geostationary satellite and microwave images show an exposed 
low-level center with fragmented curved bands on its west side. The 
initial intensity remains 25 kt, and Celia is barely hanging on as a 
tropical depression. The depression has been in an environment of 
strong east-northeasterly shear during the past day or so, and that 
is expected to continue through tonight. Therefore, no change in 
strength is expected during that time and it is possible that Celia 
could even open into a trough. However, the shear is expected to 
lessen after that, and given the conducive environment later in 
the week, strengthening seems likely from 24-120 hours. The NHC 
intensity forecast is the same as the previous one and a blend of 
the HCCA and IVCN guidance.

The system is moving west-southwestward at about 7 kt. A faster 
motion to the west and then the west-northwest is expected during 
the next several days as the cyclone is steered by a building low- 
to mid-level ridge to its north. The NHC track forecast is quite 
similar to the previous one and lies a little to the north of the 
consensus aids, leaning toward the GFS and ECMWF models, which are 
both on the right side of the guidance envelope.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  20/1500Z 11.7N  94.8W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  21/0000Z 11.6N  96.4W   25 KT  30 MPH
 24H  21/1200Z 11.8N  98.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  22/0000Z 12.2N 100.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  22/1200Z 12.8N 102.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 60H  23/0000Z 13.5N 103.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  23/1200Z 14.6N 105.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
 96H  24/1200Z 16.3N 108.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  25/1200Z 17.4N 110.2W   70 KT  80 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi