000
WTPZ43 KNHC 200843
TCDEP3
 
Tropical Depression Celia Discussion Number  15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032022
400 AM CDT Mon Jun 20 2022

There have been a few small bursts of deep convection near the 
estimated center of Celia, but easterly shear continues to prevent 
significant organization of the thunderstorm activity.  The current 
intensity estimate remains at 25 kt in accordance with a Dvorak 
estimate from SAB.  Unfortunately a recent scatterometer pass, 
which could have given additional information on the strength 
of the system, missed the circulation of the cyclone.

The global models indicate that the persistent easterly shear over 
Celia, associated with an upper-level anticyclone over southeastern 
Mexico, should gradually diminish as the tropical cyclone moves 
farther west.  This should allow for some strengthening to commence 
within the next day or so.  The official forecast shows gradual 
intensification beginning at 24 hours and is in good agreement with 
the intensity model consensus, IVCN, for the 5-day forecast period.

Celia's center slipped a little south of the previous track but the 
best estimate of initial motion is west-southwestward, or 255/8 kt. 
A large zonally-oriented subtropical ridge is expected to prevail 
to the north of Celia for the next several days.  This should 
induce a westward and then west-northwestward track over the 
period.  The official track forecast is similar to the model 
consensus and not far from the previous NHC prediction.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  20/0900Z 11.9N  94.4W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  20/1800Z 11.7N  95.7W   25 KT  30 MPH
 24H  21/0600Z 11.8N  97.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  21/1800Z 12.1N  99.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  22/0600Z 12.6N 101.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 60H  22/1800Z 13.2N 103.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  23/0600Z 14.0N 104.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
 96H  24/0600Z 15.9N 108.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  25/0600Z 17.0N 110.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch