000 WTPZ43 KNHC 192044 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Celia Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022 400 PM CDT Sun Jun 19 2022 Celia appears to be holding its own this afternoon. While convection has waned as it typically does approaching the diurnal minimum over the ocean, there remain a few convective clusters located near the depression's estimated low-level center. While scatterometer imagery largely missed Celia's circulation to the west, it did show that there were 25-30 kt northerly wind-retrievals in the gap wind flow in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. These somewhat higher winds are not yet related to Celia's wind field, but will likely play some role in broadening the overall cyclonic envelope of the system. Satellite estimates from SAB and TAFB remain unchanged from this morning, and so the current intensity remains 25 kt. The depression is losing some latitude while it has sped up some, with its current motion estimated at 260/9 kt. A general west- southwestward motion is expected to continue over the next day or so because of northward deep-layer ridging in addition to the northerly gap winds contributing to Celia's steering. Later this week, a gradual rightward turn to the west-northwest is anticipated due to the cyclone rounding the southwest side of the deep-layer ridging. Once again the track guidance has shifted a bit south this cycle, and the NHC track is also shifted in that direction, which lies close to the multi-model consensus aids. There are some interesting variations in the intensity guidance this afternoon. For example, the GFS- and ECMWF-based SHIPS guidance disagree on how quickly the northeasterly shear over Celia will subside over the next several days. The ECMWF notably now shows the shear dropping under 20 kt as soon as 18 hours from now and remaining under that value for the remainder of the forecast period. The GFS shear forecast is a good 5-10 kt higher for the next 48 hours. An inspection of the raw model fields, using simulated IR-Brightness temperature, reveals that the GFS struggles to produce deep convection near Celia over that time span, while the ECMWF shows more widespread convection near Celia's center. This convection may result in more upper-level outflow mitigating the easterly shear over the cyclone. The ECMWF has also been handling the convective structure with Celia better today, so some credence is given towards its overall solution. The NHC intensity forecast now shows a bit more intensification after 24 hours, and now makes Celia a hurricane by 96 hours, which is faster than the previous forecast. This is more in line with the IVCN consensus, but remains lower than some of the more bullish guidance (HWRF, HMON, ECMWF-SHIPS). FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/2100Z 12.7N 93.5W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 20/0600Z 12.1N 94.8W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 20/1800Z 11.5N 96.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 21/0600Z 11.6N 98.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 21/1800Z 12.1N 100.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 22/0600Z 12.5N 102.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 22/1800Z 13.0N 103.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 23/1800Z 14.7N 106.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 24/1800Z 16.3N 108.6W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Papin