000
WTPZ43 KNHC 190300
TCDEP3
 
Tropical Depression Celia Discussion Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032022
1000 PM CDT Sat Jun 18 2022
 
Celia remains a small, shallow vortex with almost no convection 
just off the coasts of Guatemala and El Salvador.  The initial 
intensity remains at 25 kts based on the earlier scatterometer pass 
and the subjective Dvorak estimate from SAB.

Celia is moving westward this evening at about 5 kt, after drifting 
slightly further north.  Track guidance is tightly clustered and 
suggests the system will turn to the west-southwest and move faster 
as it moves around a mid-level ridge to the north.  The track 
guidance this cycle is quite similar to the previous advisory, with 
only a slight southward shift of the NHC track at the end of the 
forecast period.

Easterly shear continues to inhibit any convective organization 
this evening.  High to moderate shear is expected for the next 
several days which will limit any potential intensification.  While 
the intensity forecast continues to show little change in strength 
over the next 48 hours, it remains possible that Celia could 
briefly degenerate as a tropical cyclone or reform further west 
closer to more widespread convection.  Later in the forecast period, 
the vertical wind shear should relax and environmental conditions 
are expected to allow for some gradual development.  The intensity 
forecast is similar to the previous NHC forecast and is below the 
model consensus IVCN.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  19/0300Z 13.0N  90.5W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  19/1200Z 12.8N  91.3W   25 KT  30 MPH
 24H  20/0000Z 12.5N  93.0W   25 KT  30 MPH
 36H  20/1200Z 12.2N  94.8W   25 KT  30 MPH
 48H  21/0000Z 12.1N  96.9W   25 KT  30 MPH
 60H  21/1200Z 12.4N  98.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  22/0000Z 12.9N 100.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  23/0000Z 13.9N 104.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  24/0000Z 15.3N 107.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Bucci/Blake