000 WTPZ43 KNHC 182045 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Celia Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022 400 PM CDT Sat Jun 18 2022 Small puffs of deep convection have been occuring off and on primarily west of the small and shallow vortex of Celia this afternoon. Earlier, I was fortunate to receive both ASCAT-B and ASCAT-C passes over the small circulation, and they revealed the wind field has spun down further, with peak-wind retrievals of only 25 kt. This value also matches the latest objective UW-CIMSS Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT) estimate. The initial intensity this advisory is therefore being lowered to 25 kt. After appearing to turn leftward earlier today, this afternoon Celia has either completely stalled or is drifting ever so slightly northward. Despite this temporary pause, the track guidance remains adamant that a more distinct westward motion will soon occur, with even some west-southwestward component of motion in the next 24-48 hours as the mid-level ridge to the north takes over. However, its possible some of the guidance trackers are also picking up a center relocation into the persistent convection ongoing south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec and the present vortex is simply too shallow to feel the increasing easterly mid to upper-level flow currently. In any event, the track guidance this cycle is quite similar to the previous advisory, if just a touch slower than before. The NHC track is fairly close to the previous one, though does show a bit slower motion the first 12-24 hours due to the initial hesitation in Celia today. This track lies near the reliable consensus aids. It is quite clear easterly vertical wind shear continues to disrupt Celia's convective structure. With the majority of the deep convection occuring outside of the storm's radius of maximum wind, this convection is likely doing more harm than good to the small vortex. While the intensity forecast continues to show little change in strength over the next 36 hours, it remains possible that Celia could briefly degenerate as a tropical cyclone or reform further west closer to more widespread convection. The shear is still expected to decrease as sea-surface temperatures warm after 60 hours, and assuming Celia is still a coherent system at that time, intensification remains possible. The intensity forecast for early next week is identical to this morning and is still very close to the HCCA and IVCN consensus guidance. Key Messages: 1. Areas of heavy rainfall are expected north of Celia's track across portions of far southern Mexico and Guatemala through Sunday. This rainfall may cause some instances of flash flooding and mudslides across the region. 2. Even though Celia remains fairly close to the coast of El Salvador and Guatemala, its wind field is small and weak and direct wind impacts are not anticipated. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/2100Z 13.0N 90.1W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 19/0600Z 12.8N 91.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 19/1800Z 12.5N 92.5W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 20/0600Z 12.1N 94.2W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 20/1800Z 11.9N 96.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 21/0600Z 12.0N 98.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 21/1800Z 12.5N 100.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 22/1800Z 13.7N 104.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 23/1800Z 15.0N 107.0W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Papin