466 WTPZ43 KNHC 162056 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Three-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022 400 PM CDT Thu Jun 16 2022 Over the past 12 h, there has been a notable improvement on satellite of the convective structure with an area of low pressure NHC has been monitoring to the south of the coasts of El Salvador and Guatemala. An earlier scatterometer pass showed that the system had developed a well-defined center, with maximum winds between 25-30 kt. These winds also matched a nearby ship observation in the northern semicircle of the system. Subsequent visible satellite imagery depicted convection gradually increasing near the circulation center, especially in a curved band on its western side. This improving structure is also seen well on a recently arriving AMSR2 microwave pass. For these reasons, the system now meets the criteria of a tropical cyclone, and the initial intensity will be set to 30 kt for this advisory. Three-E has been making a slow cyclonic loop over the past 24 hours, and now appears to be drifting northward, estimated at 355/2 kt. The track guidance in the short-term is rather tricky, as the steering currents near the system appear to be light and variable, with the largest steering influence expected to be monsoonal flow around a larger-scale circulation over Central America involving another disturbance over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. The track guidance is rather spread out over the first couple of days with the ECMWF on the left side and GFS on right side of the track guidance envelope. After 36 hours, a mid-level ridge is expected to gradually build in to the north of the cyclone, resulting in a gradual bend westward and some increase in forward motion. The initial track forecast currently lies near the center of the track suite, close to the HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach (HCCA). Environmental conditions appear generally favorable for some intensification over the next day or so, with shear under 10 kt, high mid-level moisture, and sea-surface temperatures above 27 C. However, easterly shear is expected to increase after 36 hours, and the slow motion of the system may leave it susceptible to upwelling cooler waters under a fairly shallow mixed layer depth of warm waters in the far East Pacific. The initial intensity forecast only shows a peak intensity of 45 kt in 36 hours and holds the system at that intensity for the remainder of the period. This intensity forecast roughly splits the difference between higher statistical-dynamical guidance (SHIPS) versus lower dynamical and consensus aids (HMON, IVCN). Given the uncertainty in the short-term track of this depression, this intensity forecast is of relatively low confidence. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/2100Z 10.8N 89.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 17/0600Z 11.1N 89.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 17/1800Z 11.5N 89.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 18/0600Z 12.2N 89.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 18/1800Z 12.8N 90.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 19/0600Z 12.9N 91.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 19/1800Z 12.9N 91.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 20/1800Z 12.9N 94.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 21/1800Z 12.8N 99.4W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Papin