000
WTPZ43 KNHC 092039
TCDEP3
 
Tropical Depression Terry Discussion Number  22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182021
200 PM MST Tue Nov 09 2021
 
Conventional satellite imagery and recent scatterometer data show
that Terry barely classifies as a tropical cyclone. The ASCAT data
indicate that the center has become less defined over the past 24
hours.  The circulation is still broadly closed, but it is
elongated with a northeast to southwest orientation.  In addition,
deep convection has continued to pulse around the western portion
of the broad circulation, but there has not been much organization
to the convection over the past 12 to 24 hours.  The scatterometer
data also revealed peak winds of around 20 kt, but the initial
intensity is only reduced to 25 kt for now, but that could be
generous.
 
Intrusions of drier mid-level air and some mid-level shear 
continue to plague the system.  As the cyclone moves westward, the 
overall environment is expected to become more stable, which should 
result in further weakening. Terry could degenerate into a trough 
of low pressure at any time over the next few days, but if it does 
not it is still expected to become a post-tropical remnant low 
within 2-3 days. 

Terry's motion is still 280/12 kt. There is again no change to the 
track forecast reasoning.  The cyclone or its remnants should 
continue to head westward over the next few days to the south of a 
strong subtropical ridge over the eastern Pacific waters.  The 
updated NHC track forecast is similar to the previous advisory and 
again close to the various consensus aids. 

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  09/2100Z 11.6N 113.0W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  10/0600Z 11.7N 114.9W   25 KT  30 MPH
 24H  10/1800Z 11.8N 117.3W   25 KT  30 MPH
 36H  11/0600Z 11.6N 119.7W   25 KT  30 MPH
 48H  11/1800Z 11.3N 122.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  12/0600Z 10.9N 124.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  12/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Brown