000
WTPZ43 KNHC 090233
TCDEP3
 
Tropical Depression Terry Discussion Number  19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182021
800 PM MST Mon Nov 08 2021
 
Although Terry is producing more deep convection this evening, 
recent microwave images show that the system still has a weak and 
ragged appearance with the low-level center located near the eastern 
edge of the main area of deep convection.   The microwave images 
also suggest that the circulation is less defined and stretching out 
from east to west.  The initial intensity is held at 30 kt, based on 
the earlier ASCAT data, which is a little below the latest Dvorak 
estimates.  Hopefully the next round of ASCAT data will provide more 
information on Terry's intensity and structure.
 
There remains no change to the track forecast reasoning.  Terry is
currently moving westward, or 280 degrees, at 12 kt.  A west to
west-northwest motion is expected during the next 12 to 24 hours,
followed by a due westward motion after that as Terry moves within
the flow on the south side of a deep-layer ridge.  The models are in
good agreement, and the NHC track forecast remains near the middle
of the guidance envelope.
 
Terry has been struggling due to mid-level wind shear and intrusions
of dry air.  Since these environmental conditions are likely to
persist, gradual weakening still seems likely.  The most difficult
question is how long Terry will hang on as a tropical depression.
Some of the models show Terry opening into a trough within a couple
of days while others strengthen the system.  Given the divergence in
the model solutions, the NHC intensity forecast has been held steady
and shows Terry dissipating by day 4.  This forecast remains on the
low side of the guidance envelope.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  09/0300Z 10.7N 109.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  09/1200Z 11.1N 111.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  10/0000Z 11.4N 113.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  10/1200Z 11.7N 116.0W   25 KT  30 MPH
 48H  11/0000Z 11.6N 118.4W   25 KT  30 MPH
 60H  11/1200Z 11.4N 121.1W   25 KT  30 MPH
 72H  12/0000Z 11.2N 123.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  13/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi