000 WTPZ43 KNHC 070237 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Eighteen-E Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182021 1000 PM CDT Sat Nov 06 2021 The structure of the depression has not changed much during the past several hours. Deep convection continues to pulse near the center and in bands on the system's south side. Last-light visible satellite images indicate that the circulation is quite stretched, likely due to the Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event. In fact, confidence in the center location is low and somewhat based on continuity. Hopefully the next round of ASCAT data and microwave images will provide a better look at how organized the circulation is overnight. For now, the system is held as a 30-kt depression following the Dvorak estimates and the earlier ASCAT data. The depression continues to move just south of due west at 265/11 kt, and the system is at a very low latitude near 8N. This motion is expected to continue overnight, but a general westward to west-northwestward motion is likely to occur after that as the system moves within the flow on the south side of a low- to mid-level ridge. Except for the UKMET, which is a northern outlier, most of the models show a similar solution with some speed differences. The NHC track forecast is near the middle of the guidance envelope and just an update of the previous one. The system has been steady state since it formed a little more than two days ago despite being in generally favorable large-scale conditions. Some of the models suggest that the depression will slowly gain strength during the next several days, which is possible since the environmental conditions are forecast to be at least marginally conducive. However, since the depression has not strengthened yet and because the circulation might not be well organized, the NHC intensity forecast remains on the low side of the guidance envelope through the period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0300Z 8.3N 98.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 07/1200Z 8.4N 100.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 08/0000Z 8.8N 102.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 08/1200Z 9.2N 105.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 09/0000Z 9.6N 107.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 09/1200Z 10.0N 110.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 10/0000Z 10.3N 112.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 11/0000Z 10.6N 117.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 12/0000Z 10.6N 123.0W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi