000 WTPZ43 KNHC 062042 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Eighteen-E Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182021 400 PM CDT Sat Nov 06 2021 The structure of TD18-E looks a bit ragged this afternoon. The earlier convective burst has decayed during the diurnal minimum, though new convective cells are redeveloping to the southwest and northeast of the estimated center position. A 1549 UTC ASCAT-B pass had peak winds of 29-kt on the north side of the circulation. The scatterometer wind data also revealed that the circulation is more elongated from southwest-to-northeast than 24 hours ago with the ambiguities suggesting it is barely closed. For now, the system will be kept as a tropical depression, with maximum sustained winds of 30 kt, matching the T2.0/30 kt subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB this afternoon. The depression continues to move just south of due west at 265/12 kt. There has been little change to the forecast track reasoning, with a prominent mid-level ridge over Mexico steering the system generally westward. The depression could gain a bit of latitude from 24-72 hours as the ridge weakens a bit over Mexico, but afterwards another mid-level ridge takes its place west of the Baja California Peninsula. The latest NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous forecast, and lies closest to a blend between the GFS and ECMWF runs (GFEX) this cycle. While the depression this afternoon looks more convectively organized than 24 hours ago, the current elongated structure is not favorable for intensification in the short term, despite seemingly conducive environmental conditions (low shear, warm sea-surface temperatures, moist mid-level air). While the intensity consensus aids (ICON, HCCA) show a bit more intensification than before, I'd like to see if the fragile vortex is able to survive another 24-36 hours traversing the low-latitudes before showing more significant intensification. In addition, the global models continue to show little if any strengthening. The latest NHC forecast is a carbon copy of the previous one and is closest in intensity to the latest ECMWF and LGEM guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/2100Z 8.3N 97.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 07/0600Z 8.2N 99.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 07/1800Z 8.3N 101.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 08/0600Z 8.8N 104.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 08/1800Z 9.2N 106.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 09/0600Z 9.8N 109.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 09/1800Z 10.2N 111.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 10/1800Z 10.4N 116.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 11/1800Z 10.5N 122.5W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Papin