000
WTPZ43 KNHC 050848
TCDEP3
 
Tropical Depression Eighteen-E Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182021
400 AM CDT Fri Nov 05 2021

The depression has not become much better organized since 
yesterday.  Some small clusters of deep convection have formed to 
the northeast and east of the center, and there are some thin 
convective banding features over the southern and western portions 
of the circulation.  Cirrus-level outflow from the system is rather 
weak at this time.  The advisory intensity estimate is held at 30 kt 
which is in general agreement with the latest Dvorak analyses from 
TAFB and SAB, along with earlier scatterometer observations.  The 
latter data, however, suggest that this may be a slightly generous 
estimate.

Latest center fixes indicate a continued westward motion, or around 
265/6 kt.  A mid-level ridge associated with a large high pressure 
system centered over western Mexico should provide the primary 
steering mechanism for the cyclone during the forecast period.  A 
mainly westward motion at a somewhat faster forward speed is 
expected, as the system encounters slightly stronger easterlies on 
the south side of the ridge within the next couple of days.  The 
dynamical track guidance is in fairly good agreement, although the 
GFS model is a bit of a northern outlier.  The official forecast 
track is similar to the previous one, and close to the model 
consensus.

Since it is still not very well organized, the tropical cyclone
is not expected to strengthen much through today.  Although the 
environment is seemingly conducive for strengthening, the model 
guidance is not very aggressive in showing intensification during 
the next few days.  This may be partially due to a lack of mid- to 
upper-level instability ,as suggested by the decay-SHIPS output.  
The official forecast, like the previous one, shows only slow 
strengthening beginning tomorrow, following the intensity model 
consensus.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  05/0900Z  9.7N  91.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  05/1800Z  9.5N  92.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  06/0600Z  9.2N  94.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  06/1800Z  9.0N  96.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  07/0600Z  8.9N  98.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 60H  07/1800Z  9.1N 100.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  08/0600Z  9.5N 103.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  09/0600Z 10.6N 108.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  10/0600Z 11.5N 112.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch