000
WTPZ43 KNHC 060234
TCDEP3
 
Tropical Depression Hilda Discussion Number  26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP082021
800 PM PDT Thu Aug 05 2021
 
The low-level center of Hilda has been partially exposed in visible 
satellite imagery as the system struggles to sustain any organized 
convection. Although a scatterometer pass around 1830 UTC showed 
winds near tropical-storm-force in the northeastern quadrant, the 
satellite presentation of Hilda has continued to deteriorate during 
the past several hours. Therefore, the initial intensity is 
maintained at 30 kt for this advisory.

Gradual weakening is expected over the next day or so as Hilda moves 
over even cooler waters and into a drier, more stable environment. 
These conditions should suppress new convective development, as 
suggested by the latest GFS and ECMWF model simulated satellite 
imagery. Thus, the latest NHC official forecast shows Hilda 
degenerating into a remnant low on Friday. Thereafter, the weakening 
remnant low is forecast to open up into a trough on Saturday, well 
east of the Hawaiian Islands.

Hilda is moving northwestward or 305/11 kt. The cyclone is expected 
to turn more west-northwestward overnight and maintain this heading 
through dissipation as it moves along the southern periphery of a 
low-level ridge to its north. The track models are still tightly 
clustered, and the official NHC forecast has only been adjusted to 
reflect the slower forward speed noted in the latest guidance.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  06/0300Z 22.2N 132.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  06/1200Z 22.8N 133.7W   25 KT  30 MPH
 24H  07/0000Z 23.5N 135.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  07/1200Z 24.0N 137.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  08/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Cangialosi