000
WTPZ43 KNHC 050235
TCDEP3
 
Tropical Storm Hilda Discussion Number  22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP082021
800 PM PDT Wed Aug 04 2021
 
Hilda's satellite appearance has changed little over the past 
several hours. Small bursts of moderate to deep convection persist 
in the eastern semicircle of the system, and the low-level center is 
still partially exposed to the west of the convective cloud mass. 
Without any recent scatterometer data, the initial intensity is held 
at 35 kt for this advisory, in best agreement with a T2.5/35 kt 
Dvorak classification from TAFB.

A subtropical ridge over the eastern North Pacific continues to 
steer Hilda west-northwestward, or 290/7 kt. This general motion is 
expected to continue for the next day or so, followed by a slight 
westward turn on Friday as the shallow cyclone becomes steered by a 
low-level ridge to its north. While most of the models show limited 
interaction between Hilda and TD Nine-E to its southwest, it is 
worth noting that the GFS moves both Nine-E and Hilda much farther 
northward than the rest of the guidance. The GFS solution is not 
favored at this time, and the latest NHC track forecast remains very 
similar to the previous one and lies near the multi-model guidance 
consensus.

Hilda is not expected to remain a tropical storm for much longer. As 
sea surface temperatures decrease along its track and the cyclone 
moves into a drier, more stable environment, it will become 
increasingly difficult for Hilda to sustain organized convection 
near its center. The latest NHC forecast calls for Hilda to weaken 
to a tropical depression on Thursday and degenerate to a 25-kt 
remnant low on Friday morning. Then, the global models agree that 
the system should open into a trough and dissipate by Saturday 
morning well east of the Hawaiian Islands.     
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  05/0300Z 19.6N 128.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  05/1200Z 20.2N 130.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  06/0000Z 21.3N 132.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  06/1200Z 22.1N 134.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  07/0000Z 22.6N 137.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  07/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Pasch