000
WTPZ43 KNHC 040236
TCDEP3
 
Tropical Storm Hilda Discussion Number  18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP082021
800 PM PDT Tue Aug 03 2021
 
Hilda is a weakening tropical cyclone. Its low-level center is now 
exposed in visible satellite imagery, and infrared cloud top 
temperatures have rapidly warmed as the system is currently not 
producing any deep convection. Despite this lack of convection, 
earlier scatterometer data revealed several 45-kt wind vectors in 
the northern and eastern portions of the circulation. The initial 
intensity is lowered to 45 kt for this advisory, which is supported 
by a blend of the final-T numbers and current intensity estimates 
from TAFB and SAB, and the objective UW-CIMSS SATCON estimate. 

A mid-level ridge centered over the southwestern U.S. continues to 
steer Hilda northwestward at around 7 kt. As the vortex spins down 
and becomes vertically shallow, Hilda is expected to turn 
west-northwestward and accelerate a bit as a low-level ridge builds 
westward across the eastern Pacific. The official NHC track forecast 
is largely unchanged from the previous one and lies close to the 
multi-model consensus.

Hilda is moving over cooler waters and into a more stable 
environment, so continued weakening is expected over the next few 
days. The official NHC forecast now shows Hilda weakening to a 
tropical depression by Thursday morning and degenerating to a 
remnant low soon thereafter. The remnant low is still expected to 
open up into a trough this weekend well east-northeast of the 
Hawaiian Islands.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  04/0300Z 18.4N 125.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  04/1200Z 19.1N 126.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  05/0000Z 19.9N 128.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  05/1200Z 20.7N 129.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  06/0000Z 21.6N 132.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  06/1200Z 22.3N 134.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  07/0000Z 22.9N 136.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  08/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Pasch