000
WTPZ43 KNHC 032039
TCDEP3
 
Tropical Storm Hilda Discussion Number  17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP082021
200 PM PDT Tue Aug 03 2021

Deep convection in Hilda's central dense overcast has been weakening 
today, with the low-level center still on the northern side of the 
cloud mass.  Satellite classifications have decreased since the last 
advisory, and a partial ASCAT pass around 1700 UTC showed maximum 
winds of about 45 kt.  Assuming some undersampling and that the 
eastern radius-of-maximum winds could have been missed, the initial 
wind speed is set to 50 kt.  A combination of shear, cool water 
temperatures, and a more stable environment should keep Hilda on a 
weakening trend throughout the forecast period.  Model guidance 
continues to be in very good agreement, and the new NHC forecast is 
basically an update of the previous one.  Hilda is expected to 
degenerate into a remnant low by Friday and dissipate as a trough 
this weekend well east of the Hawaiian Islands.

The storm continues moving northwestward, now a little slower at 
about 6 kt.  A mid-level ridge centered over southern California 
should build westward during the next few days as a mid-latitude 
trough along 135W moves northward out of the area.  This pattern is 
expected to turn Hilda west-northwestward tomorrow and accelerate 
the cyclone in that direction as it encounters stronger low- to 
mid-level flow. Model guidance is a shade faster and to the left of 
the last cycle, and the new NHC track forecast follows that trend.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  03/2100Z 17.8N 125.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  04/0600Z 18.5N 125.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  04/1800Z 19.4N 127.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  05/0600Z 20.2N 128.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  05/1800Z 21.1N 130.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 60H  06/0600Z 21.9N 132.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  06/1800Z 22.5N 135.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  07/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Blake