000
WTPZ43 KNHC 021434
TCDEP3
 
Hurricane Hilda Discussion Number  12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP082021
800 AM PDT Mon Aug 02 2021

The satellite presentation of Hilda hasn't changed much in the past 
several hours, with a round central dense overcast and perhaps a 
ragged eye trying to form. The intensity estimates range from 60-77 
kt, and since the hurricane's presentation is about the same as the 
last advisory, the current wind speed will remain 70 kt.  This is 
one of those times that in situ reconnaissance data would be helpful 
since there has been lots of spread in the intensity estimates for 
quite some time, and Hilda is at an intensity where it is hard to 
get more precise measurements.

The hurricane has finally turned northwestward and should continue 
in that general direction for the next couple of days on the 
southwestern side of the subtropical ridge, with some influence from 
Ignacio to the northeast.  Model guidance is in decent agreement 
that Hilda will turn back to the west-northwest by midweek and then 
west under the restrengthened subtropical ridge.  While there are 
still some outlier solutions, the latest consensus guidance is near 
the previous NHC forecast, so only small changes were made on this 
advisory.

Hilda is maintaining good inner-core structure on the latest 
microwave data despite northeasterly shear (perhaps because of a 
fairly moist mid-level environment around the hurricane), so little 
intensity change is forecast for today.  Thereafter, the system 
should move over cooler waters into a drier environment, which 
should cause gradual weakening for the next several days.  Very 
little change was made to the NHC intensity forecast, and it is 
close to the HCCA and IVCN consensus aids throughout.  Remnant-low 
status is expected by 96 h, if not sooner.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  02/1500Z 15.4N 122.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  03/0000Z 16.0N 123.1W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  03/1200Z 16.9N 123.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  04/0000Z 17.9N 124.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  04/1200Z 18.9N 126.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 60H  05/0000Z 19.7N 127.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  05/1200Z 20.4N 129.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 96H  06/1200Z 21.5N 133.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  07/1200Z 21.5N 138.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
Forecaster Blake