000
WTPZ43 KNHC 160236
TCDEP3
 
Tropical Depression Carlos Discussion Number  14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032021
500 PM HST Tue Jun 15 2021

Carlos continues to produce small, short-lived bursts of convection 
near its center this evening. While this limited convection lacks 
significant organization, it remains just active enough to hold onto 
Carlos as a sheared tropical cyclone. The initial intensity is set
at 30 kt, which is consistent with several earlier ASCAT passes that 
showed 25-30 kt winds in the northwest quadrant of the cyclone.

The depression continues moving just south of due west, or 260/07 
kt. A gradual westward to west-northwestward turn is expected during 
the next day or so as Carlos moves around the southern periphery of 
a low- to mid-level ridge. Although sea-surface temperatures remain 
warm enough along the forecast track to support more brief 
convective pulses, 20-25 kt of westerly shear and limited mid-level 
moisture will inhibit any organized convective development. Carlos 
will move into a more subsident environment by 24 h, which should 
seal its fate as it degenerates to a remnant low. The vortex is 
expected to gradually spin down thereafter, and it should dissipate 
by late this week. The latest NHC forecast is largely an update of 
the previous one and lies near the latest multi-model consensus.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  16/0300Z  9.6N 134.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  16/1200Z  9.5N 135.2W   25 KT  30 MPH
 24H  17/0000Z  9.4N 136.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  17/1200Z  9.5N 137.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  18/0000Z  9.8N 138.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  18/1200Z 10.0N 140.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  19/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Beven