000
WTPZ43 KNHC 142042
TCDEP3
 
Tropical Depression Carlos Discussion Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032021
200 PM PDT Mon Jun 14 2021
 
The convective burst that occurred this morning near the center of
Carlos has been gradually dissipating throughout the day. Satellite
imagery shows dry and stable air being entrained into the
circulation and the cyclone's center has become partially exposed.
The latest Dvorak estimate from TAFB indicates that Carlos has
weakened to a 30-kt tropical depression, and this will be the
initial advisory intensity.
 
Carlos is moving west-southwest at 8 kt, steered by a low- to
mid-level ridge to its north. Most of the track guidance is in good
agreement on keeping this ridge intact over the next several days,
forcing Carlos on the same west-southwest trajectory for the next
day or so, followed by a gradual turn to the west by midweek. The
latest NHC track forecast was adjusted to be a little faster and to
the south of the previous one to better match the trend in the
guidance, and is now near the northern end of the multi-model
consensus.
 
The depression is forecast to continue to traverse a dry and stable
airmass for the remainder of the week, and ongoing intrusions of
this air should inhibit the cyclone from producing long-lived
convection. The lack of deep convection should cause Carlos to
continue a slow weakening trend and eventually degenerate into a
remnant low. The official NHC forecast calls for this transition to
to occur by 48 h. However, it could occur sooner than this if
organized deep convection fails to regenerate.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  14/2100Z 10.9N 130.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  15/0600Z 10.5N 131.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  15/1800Z 10.1N 132.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  16/0600Z  9.9N 134.0W   25 KT  30 MPH
 48H  16/1800Z  9.9N 135.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  17/0600Z  9.9N 136.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  17/1800Z 10.1N 137.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  18/1800Z 10.3N 140.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  19/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Latto