000
WTPZ43 KNHC 220837
TCDEP3

Hurricane Kenneth Discussion Number  16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132017
200 AM PDT Tue Aug 22 2017

Kenneth is quickly weakening this morning.  Recent microwave images
show that the inner-core structure has eroded and that the low-level
center is displaced to the southwest of the mid-level center due to
moderate southwesterly shear.  Subjective and objective Dvorak
T-numbers are decreasing and the initial intensity is set at 80 kt,
which is a blend of the various final T- and CI-numbers.

The hurricane is expected to continue to rapidly weaken during the
next day or so while it moves over progressively cooler sea surface
temperatures and into an area of increasing southwesterly vertical
wind shear.  Kenneth should weaken to a tropical storm later today,
and become post-tropical in 2-3 days, if not sooner.  The NHC
intensity forecast is in good agreement with the HFIP corrected
consensus model, but is a little lower than the statistical guidance
and the previous advisory.

Kenneth is moving northwestward or 325/9 kt. The cyclone should
turn north-northwestward today between a mid-level ridge to its
east and a cut-off low to the west. As Kenneth weakens, it is
predicted to slow down and turn northwestward by the end of the
forecast period.  The track models are in excellent agreement
through 48-72 hours, but diverge somewhat after Kenneth weakens
and becomes post-tropical.  The official track forecast is close to
the GFS/ECMWF consensus and is not much different than the previous
NHC advisory.

The 34- and 50-kt wind radii have been adjusted slightly inward
based on a couple of recent ASCAT overpass.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/0900Z 20.0N 132.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
 12H  22/1800Z 21.3N 133.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  23/0600Z 23.2N 134.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  23/1800Z 25.1N 135.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  24/0600Z 26.6N 136.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  25/0600Z 28.7N 136.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  26/0600Z 30.0N 137.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  27/0600Z 31.0N 138.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brown