000
WTPZ43 KNHC 230235
TCDEP3

TROPICAL STORM GEORGETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082016
800 PM PDT FRI JUL 22 2016

This evening's satellite presentation has revealed some
deterioration of the cloud pattern.  Georgette's earlier impressive,
banding-eye feature is no longer present, and recent microwave
images indicate a more sheared, tilted structure.  Apparently,
modest northeasterly shear has once again returned and has partially
exposed the center of circulation to the east of the strongest
convection.  The initial intensity is held at 55 kt for this
advisory and is based on Dvorak intensity estimates of T3.5 from
TAFB and SAB.  The large-scale guidance and the SHIPS model all
show the shear lingering for the next 24 hours or so.  Subsequently,
only modest strengthening is reflected, but all the
statistical-dynamical guidance show Georgette still becoming a
hurricane in 12 hours.  The intensity models indicate further
strengthening through mid-period, then agree on a gradual weakening
trend through day 5.  The official forecast follows this scenario
and is based on the combination of the IVCN multi-model consensus
and the stronger HWRF hurricane model.

The initial motion is estimated to be west-northwest at 290/11.  A
mid- to upper-level ridge extending westward over the eastern
Pacific from the southwestern United States should continue to
steer Georgette in this general direction for the next 36 hours.
Afterward, a retrograding upper-tropospheric trough, embedded in the
deep-layer easterly flow south of the ridge axis, is expected to
temporarily disrupt the steering flow just enough to cause Georgette
to decrease in speed and turn toward the northwest.  Late in the
period, the ridge should reestablish north of the cyclone and turn
Georgette back toward the west-northwest.  The NHC forecast is
quite similar to the last one, and closely follows the TVCN
multi-model consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/0300Z 13.2N 119.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  23/1200Z 13.7N 120.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  24/0000Z 14.3N 122.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  24/1200Z 15.0N 124.3W   80 KT  90 MPH
 48H  25/0000Z 16.0N 125.8W   85 KT 100 MPH
 72H  26/0000Z 17.5N 127.9W   80 KT  90 MPH
 96H  27/0000Z 18.4N 129.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  28/0000Z 19.4N 131.6W   50 KT  60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Roberts