000
WTPZ43 KNHC 222035
TCDEP3

TROPICAL STORM GEORGETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082016
200 PM PDT FRI JUL 22 2016

Georgette has continued to strengthen today.  A small central dense
overcast is present in geostationary imagery with a well-defined
low-level eye seen in a 1415Z WindSat pass.  A hint of an eye was
also noted in earlier visible imagery.  The initial intensity is set
at 55 kt based on the latest TAFB Dvorak estimate of T3.5/55 kt and
the UW-CIMSS ADT of T3.4/53 kt at 18Z.  It appears that the shear
has relaxed at least somewhat over the cyclone today, and the SSTs
of over 28C should be conducive for at least steady intensification
in the next 36 to 48 hours.  The new NHC intensity forecast has
again been adjusted upward and is above the intensity consensus and
close to the LGEM model.  Note that the HWRF shows more rapid
intensification in the short range, which is possible.  Later in the
forecast period the SSTs gradually cool, which should result in
steady weakening at days 3 through 5.

The initial motion is now a little faster toward the west-northwest
at 295/13.  Georgette should continue on this heading for the next
48 hours while being steered by a subtropical ridge centered to the
northeast.  After that time an upper-level low will undercut the
ridge northwest of the tropical cyclone, which should result in a
slower motion toward the northwest at days 3 and 4, followed by a
turn back toward the west-northwest at day 5 as the ridge rebuilds.
The new NHC track forecast is along the previous one but is again
faster during the first 72 hours following the guidance trend.  Late
in the period the new NHC track is a little to the left of the
previous one and is close to the middle of the guidance
envelope.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/2100Z 12.8N 118.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  23/0600Z 13.4N 119.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  23/1800Z 14.0N 121.9W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  24/0600Z 14.6N 123.7W   85 KT 100 MPH
 48H  24/1800Z 15.5N 125.4W   90 KT 105 MPH
 72H  25/1800Z 17.0N 127.7W   80 KT  90 MPH
 96H  26/1800Z 18.0N 129.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  27/1800Z 19.0N 131.5W   50 KT  60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brennan