000
WTPZ43 KNHC 221456
TCDEP3

TROPICAL STORM GEORGETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082016
800 AM PDT FRI JUL 22 2016

The satellite presentation of the cyclone has improved during the
past few hours, with an increase in deep convection in a developing
CDO and a large but fractured convective band in the western
semicircle.  The initial intensity is set to 40 kt based on
a blend of the latest Dvorak estimates of 45 kt from TAFB and 35 kt
from SAB.  A 0931Z GPM pass showed that some inner-core structure
has developed, but moderate easterly shear is forecast to persist
for the next couple of days.  This envirionment should allow for
steady strengthening while the storm moves over SSTs above 28C.
SSTs cool below 26C after 72 hours, which suggests slow weakening
late in the period.  The new NHC intensity forecast has been
adjusted upward given the initial intensity but keeps the same peak
intensity.  This forecast is above the intensity consensus and near
the latest SHIPS and LGEM predictions through 5 days.

The initial motion estimate is 295/11 and Georgette should be
steered west-northwestward by the east Pacific subtropical ridge for
the next 2 to 3 days.  Later in the forecast period the ridge shifts
westward, which should cause a decrease in forward speed and a bend
in the track toward the northwest.  The track model guidance is in
generally good agreement on this scenario.  The new NHC track
forecast is along the previous one but is a little faster, and is
close to the latest multi-model consensus.

The formation of Georgette as the seventh named storm in the basin
this month ties the July record for the most named storm formations,
which was set in 1985.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/1500Z 12.3N 117.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  23/0000Z 12.9N 118.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  23/1200Z 13.5N 120.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  24/0000Z 14.0N 122.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  24/1200Z 14.7N 123.7W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  25/1200Z 16.5N 126.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  26/1200Z 17.5N 128.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  27/1200Z 18.5N 129.5W   55 KT  65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brennan