000
WTPZ43 KNHC 220834
TCDEP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082016
200 AM PDT FRI JUL 22 2016

ASCAT-B scatterometer data from 0448 UTC indicate that the
depression's winds have not strengthened yet, and the initial
intensity remains 30 kt.  Some banding is trying to form, but most
of the convection is displaced to the west of the center due to 15
kt of east-northeasterly shear.  Although sea surface temperatures
near the cyclone are very warm--around 29C--the shear is likely to
continue for at least the next 24-36 hours.  The shear should then
decrease after 36 hours with SSTs remaining warm through day 3,
giving the cyclone an opportunity to strengthen to hurricane
intensity in a couple of days.  After day 3, a cooler ocean and a
drier air mass should lead to gradual weakening.  The updated NHC
intensity forecast is close to the SHIPS guidance through 24 hours,
showing a slightly slower intensification trend in the short term
compared to the previous forecast.  The official forecast is a
little higher than SHIPS between 36 and 72 hours and then is closest
to the LGEM model on days 4 and 5.

The depression remains on track with an initial motion of 295/11
kt.  Strong mid-level ridging extending from the south-central
United States southwestward over the Pacific Ocean is expected to
maintain the cyclone on a west-northwestward heading for the next
48 hours.  The ridge is expected to shift westward between
California and Hawaii on days 3 through 5, impeding the cyclone's
forward motion and causing it to turn northwestward and slow down
considerably.  There's not much spread among the track guidance,
and the updated NHC track forecast has been placed very near the
TVCE model consensus.  This forecast is a little slower than the
previous forecast at 36 hours and beyond.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/0900Z 11.8N 116.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  22/1800Z 12.4N 117.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  23/0600Z 13.1N 119.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  23/1800Z 13.7N 121.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  24/0600Z 14.2N 122.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  25/0600Z 15.8N 125.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  26/0600Z 17.0N 127.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  27/0600Z 18.0N 128.5W   50 KT  60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg