000
WTPZ43 KNHC 100835
TCDEP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  30
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032016
200 AM PDT SUN JUL 10 2016

Blas has been void of organized deep convection since about 00Z,
and convection is unlikely to return given that the cyclone is
moving over SSTs less than 24C.  The initial intensity is lowered to
30 kt based on the latest Dvorak estimate from TAFB.  Blas should
weaken to a remnant low later today and the cyclone is expected to
open up into a trough after 48 hours.

Microwave fixes indicate that Blas is located a bit south of
previous estimates and the latest geostationary fixes, and the
initial motion estimate is 280/10.  The shallow cyclone is expected
to gradually turn west-southwestward under the influence of the
low-level trade wind flow before dissipation.  The new NHC track
forecast is a little south of the previous one given the initial
position and a southward trend in the multi-model consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  10/0900Z 21.2N 135.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  10/1800Z 21.3N 136.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  11/0600Z 21.0N 138.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  11/1800Z 20.5N 141.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  12/0600Z 20.0N 143.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  13/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brennan