000
WTPZ43 KNHC 100233
TCDEP3

TROPICAL STORM BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032016
800 PM PDT SAT JUL 09 2016

The cloud pattern has degraded significantly tonight, and the
deep convection has practically vanished. However, given the
vigorous circulation still associated with Blas, it is estimated
that the winds are 35 kt. Due to cold waters and high shear, global
models and the intensity guidance weaken the cyclone fast. On this
basis, the NHC forecast calls for Blas to degenerate into a remnant
low in 24 hours or less.

Blas' circulation is moving toward the west or 280 degrees at 10
kt. Now that the cyclone is quickly becoming a shallow system, it is
forecast to be steered westward or west-southwestward by the
low-level flow until dissipation in a couple of days. Blas could
still produce sporadic bursts of convection in the next day or two.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  10/0300Z 21.2N 134.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  10/1200Z 21.5N 136.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  11/0000Z 21.5N 138.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  11/1200Z 21.0N 140.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  12/0000Z 20.5N 142.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  13/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila