000
WTPZ43 KNHC 092039
TCDEP3

TROPICAL STORM BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032016
200 PM PDT SAT JUL 09 2016

Blas continues to decay.  The intensity and coverage of the
associated deep convection has been shrinking throughout the day,
and the remaining cold cloud tops are mainly confined to the
northwestern portion of the circulation.  The Dvorak T-numbers
are falling, and a blend of the latest classifications support
lowering the initial intensity to 40 kt.  The storm is currently
over cool 24 C waters and embedded in a dry air mass.  These
conditions combined with an increase in southwesterly shear should
cause the system to degenerate to a remnant low on Sunday.  The
global models show the remnant low dissipating in about 4 days, and
that is reflected in the official forecast.

The weakening system is still moving northwestward at about 10 kt.
A turn toward the west is predicted over the next day or so when
Blas becomes an even shallower system and is steered by the
low-level trade wind flow.  The NHC official track forecast has
been adjusted a little to the south of the previous one to come into
better agreement with the latest guidance.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  09/2100Z 20.8N 133.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  10/0600Z 21.1N 135.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  10/1800Z 21.2N 136.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  11/0600Z 21.0N 139.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  11/1800Z 20.6N 141.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  12/1800Z 19.5N 145.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  13/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi