000
WTPZ43 KNHC 091449
TCDEP3

TROPICAL STORM BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032016
800 AM PDT SAT JUL 09 2016

Satellite images indicate that Blas continues to weaken.  The
associated deep convection has been shrinking in coverage and
gradually losing organization during the last several hours.
Accordingly, the Dvorak T-numbers are falling and a blend of the
latest estimates from TAFB, SAB, and automated values from CIMSS at
the University of Wisconsin suggest that the initial intensity has
decreased to near 50 kt.  Blas is currently over cool 24 C waters
and embedded in a fairly stable air mass.  These unfavorable
conditions combined with a notable increase in southwesterly wind
shear during the next couple of days should allow the weakening
trend to continue.  Blas is forecast to degenerate into a remnant
low in 24 to 36 hours and dissipate in 4 to 5 days.

The tropical storm is moving northwestward at about 9 kt located
on the southwestern periphery of a mid-level ridge centered over
northwestern Mexico.  A gradual turn to the west is expected over
the next day or two while the cyclone becomes shallower and is
steered by the low-level trade wind flow.  The NHC track forecast is
largely an update of the previous one and lies closest to the
consensus of the GFS and ECMWF models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  09/1500Z 20.1N 132.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  10/0000Z 20.8N 133.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  10/1200Z 21.3N 135.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  11/0000Z 21.5N 137.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  11/1200Z 21.2N 139.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  12/1200Z 20.5N 144.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  13/1200Z 19.8N 148.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  14/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi