000
WTPZ43 KNHC 090834
TCDEP3

TROPICAL STORM BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032016
200 AM PDT SAT JUL 09 2016

Blas continues to gradually weaken due to cool SSTs and increasing
shear.  Microwave imagery indicates that the low-level center is
displaced 20 to 30 miles to the south of the mid-level center
apparent in geostationary imagery.  Dvorak classifications were
T4.0/65 kt from TAFB and T3.5/55 kt from SAB, and the initial
intensity is lowered to 60 kt based on a blend of these data.  Quick
weakening is forecast to continue while Blas moves over SSTs below
24C and southwesterly shear increases.  Blas is forecast to become a
remnant low in 36 hours and dissipate by day 5, and the new NHC
intensity forecast is close to the latest IVCN intensity consensus.

The above-mentioned microwave imagery showed that the low-level
center was located a little south of previous estimates, and the
adjusted best track yields an initial motion estimate of 310/08.
The track forecast reasoning remains unchanged, as Blas should
continue west-northwestward for the next 24 hours and then turn
westward and eventually west-southwestward as the remnant low is
steered by the low-level trade wind flow.  The new NHC track is a
little south of the previous through 36 hours given the initial
position adjustment, and is close to the previous advisory after
that time.  This forecast is close to the multi-model consensus
through much of the period.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  09/0900Z 19.5N 131.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  09/1800Z 20.5N 132.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  10/0600Z 21.3N 134.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  10/1800Z 21.6N 136.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  11/0600Z 21.5N 138.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  12/0600Z 21.0N 143.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  13/0600Z 20.0N 147.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  14/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brennan