000
WTPZ43 KNHC 050234
TCDEP3

HURRICANE BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032016
800 PM PDT MON JUL 04 2016

Blas is gradually gaining strength.  A ragged eye has been
occasionally evident in geostationary satellite images and the
inner core of the hurricane appears a little better organized than
it was earlier today.  In fact, a recent SSMIS microwave overpass
showed an eye feature within the symmetric CDO.  The latest
Dvorak classifications and ADT values from CIMSS at the University
of Wisconsin support raising the initial intensity to 75 kt.

The hurricane is expected to remain in conducive environmental
conditions for strengthening for another 36 hours as the wind shear
is expected to be less than 10 kt with sufficiently warm water and a
considerable amount of moisture. The official NHC intensity forecast
remains at the upper end of the guidance during that time and calls
for Blas to reach major hurricane status. In about two days,
however, the system is forecast to move over sea surface
temperatures of around 26 C and into a more stable air mass, which
should end the strengthening phase and promote a steady weakening
trend. Blas is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone by the
end of the period when it is forecast to be over sea surface
temperatures near 24 C.

Blas continues to move west-northwestward at about 12 kt on the
south side of a sprawling mid-level ridge over Mexico and the
eastern Pacific Ocean.  The models are in very good agreement
in showing a continued west-northwestward motion during the next 3
to 4 days while the ridge remains the primary steering mechanism.
There is some divergence in the model solutions by the end of the
forecast period, with the GFS, GFDL, and UKMET models showing a more
northern track while the ECMWF and HWRF models have a track farther
south.  This spread is associated with differences in how much Blas
interacts with a cut off low north of the Hawaiian Islands.  The NHC
track forecast remains near the middle of the guidance envelope and
is very close to the multi-model consensus TVCE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  05/0300Z 14.0N 116.8W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  05/1200Z 14.4N 118.7W   85 KT 100 MPH
 24H  06/0000Z 14.9N 121.1W  100 KT 115 MPH
 36H  06/1200Z 15.3N 123.4W  105 KT 120 MPH
 48H  07/0000Z 15.8N 125.4W  100 KT 115 MPH
 72H  08/0000Z 17.1N 129.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
 96H  09/0000Z 18.9N 132.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  10/0000Z 20.7N 135.9W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi