000
WTPZ43 KNHC 040835
TCDEP3
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SONIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP182013
100 AM PST MON NOV 04 2013
 
SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF SONIA REACHED THE
COAST OF SINALOA NEAR THE CITY OF EL DORADO ROUGHLY AROUND 0500
UTC...AND THE CYCLONE WAS STILL PRODUCING A SMALL AREA OF 35-KT
WINDS NEAR THE COAST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER AT THAT TIME. 
NOW THAT THE CENTER AND ALL OF THE DEEP CONVECTION HAVE MOVED
INLAND...SONIA IS PROBABLY NO LONGER PRODUCING SUSTAINED TROPICAL-
STORM-FORCE WINDS...AND IT IS BEING DOWNGRADED TO A DEPRESSION ON
THIS ADVISORY.  RAPID WEAKENING IS EXPECTED FROM THIS POINT FORWARD
DUE TO INTERACTION WITH MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN AND VERY STRONG SHEAR. 
EVEN THOUGH THE NHC FORECAST PROVIDES A 12-HOUR REMNANT LOW
POSITION...SONIA COULD VERY WELL HAVE DISSIPATED BY THAT TIME AS
SHOWN BY THE GLOBAL MODELS.

SONIA WAS MOVING QUICKLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD BETWEEN 15-20 KT BEFORE
IT REACHED LAND...BUT IT IS NOW SLOWING DOWN CONSIDERABLY WITH AN
ESTIMATED MOTION OF 030/8 KT.  AN EVEN SLOWER NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
MOTION IS EXPECTED BEFORE DISSIPATION DUE TO THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER
BECOMING BLOCKED BY MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

EVEN THOUGH SONIA IS WEAKENING...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS STILL
POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SINALOA...WESTERN DURANGO...AND
SOUTHERN CHIHUAHUA THROUGH THE DAY.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  04/0900Z 24.6N 107.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 12H  04/1800Z 25.0N 107.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  05/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG