000
WTPZ43 KNHC 011445
TCDEP3
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP182013
800 AM PDT FRI NOV 01 2013
 
THE DEPRESSION HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS...WITH MOST OF ITS DEEP CONVECTION IN THE WESTERN
SEMICIRCLE OF THE LARGE CIRCULATION.  EVEN WITH VISIBLE SATELLITE
PICTURES...THE CENTER IS HARD TO FIND...AND THERE APPEARS TO BE
MULTIPLE SWIRLS WITHIN THE CIRCULATION ENVELOPE.  SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE UNCHANGED...AND THE INITIAL WIND SPEED WILL
STAY 30 KT.
 
THE SYSTEM HAS SOME CHANCE TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS WHILE IT REMAINS OVER WARM WATER WITH LIGHT SHEAR.  ALTHOUGH
THE REGIONAL HURRICANE MODELS SUGGEST THE DEPRESSION WILL GET
SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER DURING THAT TIME...MOST OF THE OTHER
GUIDANCE SHOW ONLY A SMALL INCREASE IN WINDS.  GIVEN THE LARGE SIZE
OF THE DEPRESSION AND THE POOR INITIAL STRUCTURE...THE WEAKER IDEA
SEEMS MORE REASONABLE.  THE NHC FORECAST IS REDUCED SLIGHTLY FROM
THE PREVIOUS ONE DURING THE FIRST 24H...AND IS BASICALLY THE SAME
THEREAFTER...IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS.  WEAKENING
SHOULD COMMENCE AFTER 48H DUE TO AN INCREASE IN SHEAR...AND THE
CYCLONE WILL PROBABLY NOT LAST LONG AFTER LANDFALL DUE TO STRONG
SHEAR AND INTERACTION WITH MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
 
ALTHOUGH IT IS DIFFICULT TO TELL...THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE MAKING A
LEFTWARD TURN...AND IS NOW MOVING ROUGHLY 345/6.  RIDGING SHOULD
TEMPORARILY BUILD OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO...CAUSING THE CYCLONE TO
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT 24 TO
36 HOURS.  AFTER THAT...A LARGE CLOSED LOW APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST SHOULD INDUCE A SHARP TURN TO THE NORTH AND NORTH-NORTHEAST.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED A BIT TO THE WEST DURING THE
FIRST 48H TO BETTER FIT THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE...BUT IS VERY
CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AFTER THAT TIME.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  01/1500Z 16.9N 108.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  02/0000Z 17.4N 108.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  02/1200Z 17.8N 109.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  03/0000Z 18.4N 110.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  03/1200Z 19.6N 110.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  04/1200Z 23.0N 108.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  05/1200Z 27.0N 105.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  06/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE