000
WTPZ43 KNHC 192034
TCDEP3
 
TROPICAL STORM MANUEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132013
200 PM PDT THU SEP 19 2013
 
RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW THAT THE ORGANIZATION OF MANUEL HAS
DEGRADED THIS AFTERNOON...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO
40 KT.  MANUEL WILL MOVE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WEST-CENTRAL
MEXICO SHORTLY...WHICH WILL CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN....
AND DISSIPATION IS EXPECTED TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY.  THE CYCLONE
IS NOW MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AT ABOUT 6 KT...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION
SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL MANUEL DISSIPATES. 
 
HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
INLAND OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO.  THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  19/2100Z 25.7N 107.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  20/0600Z 26.3N 106.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  20/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN