000
WTPZ43 KNHC 191440
TCDEP3
 
HURRICANE MANUEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132013
800 AM PDT THU SEP 19 2013
 
AN AMSR2 MICROWAVE OVERPASS AT 0854 UTC INDICATED THAT THE LOW-
AND MID-LEVEL CENTERS OF MANUAL WERE STILL VERTICALLY ALIGNED...
AND STILL LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO.
SINCE THAT TIME...RADAR IMAGES FROM GUASAVE MEXICO SHOW THAT
CENTER CROSSED THE COAST TO THE WEST OF CULIACAN JUST AFTER 1200
UTC...WITH AN ESTIMATED 65-KT INTENSITY.  THE EYE REMAINS FAIRLY
WELL INTACT AT THIS TIME...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 65
KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
 
FIXES FROM THE RECENT MICROWAVE AND RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT
MANUEL IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 3 KT.  THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AND MANUEL
SHOULD MOVE FARTHER INLAND.  STEADY WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AND MANUEL
IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITHIN 24 HOURS AND
DISSIPATE OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN MEXICO IN 24 TO 36
HOURS...IF NOT SOONER.
 
THE RADAR DATA SUGGEST THAT VERY HEAVY RAINFALL HAS FALLEN OVER
PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN STATE OF SINALOA DURING THE NIGHT.
ADDITIONAL RAINS FROM THIS SYSTEM ARE LIKELY TO PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES IN PORTIONS
OF WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  19/1500Z 25.0N 107.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  20/0000Z 25.4N 107.7W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND
 24H  20/1200Z 25.9N 107.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 36H  21/0000Z 26.5N 107.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  21/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN