000
WTPZ43 KNHC 190253
TCDEP3
 
HURRICANE MANUEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132013
800 PM PDT WED SEP 18 2013
 
DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES AND MICROWAVE
DATA SHOWED A RAGGED EYE. ON THAT BASIS...MANUEL WAS UPGRADED TO A
HURRICANE WITH 65-KNOT WINDS. SINCE THAT TIME...THERE HAS BEEN NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE CLOUD PATTERN...AND BECAUSE THE NORTHERN
EYEWALL AND A PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION ARE ALREADY INTERACTING
WITH LAND...THE INTENSIFICATION OBSERVED EARLIER HAS ENDED. 
 
MANUEL HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT ABOUT 3
KT. THIS SHIFT TOWARD THE NORTH...ALTHOUGH SMALL...HAS BROUGHT THE
CENTER CLOSE TO THE COAST...AND THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS
REDUCED FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE.  HOWEVER...MANUEL COULD EASILY
DEVIATE A LITTLE BIT TO THE LEFT..AND THE CENTER COULD REMAIN OVER
WATER A LITTLE LONGER. THIS WILL MAKE A DIFFERENCE IN THE RATE OF
WEAKENING. 

TRACK GUIDANCE IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN...AND MODELS ARE IN AS MUCH
DISAGREEMENT AS POSSIBLE. THIS OCCURS...IN GENERAL...WHEN THE
STEERING FLOW IS NOT WELL ESTABLISHED. THE NHC FORECAST WHICH...IN
FACT...IS ALSO HIGHLY UNCERTAIN...HAS OPTED FOR THE SLOW NORTHWARD
TRACK BRINGING A WEAKENING CYCLONE FATHER INLAND. THIS IS VERY
CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  19/0300Z 24.6N 108.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  19/1200Z 24.8N 108.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...INLAND
 24H  20/0000Z 25.1N 108.1W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND
 36H  20/1200Z 25.5N 108.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 48H  21/0000Z 25.5N 108.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 72H  22/0000Z 25.5N 108.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  23/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA